Risk-Adjusted Scenario Planning

Lynnway Park: Risk Scenarios

How delays in grid connection, construction, hardware delivery and tenant move-in change cost, revenue and return: each risk on its own first, then combined into one risk-adjusted outcome in the scenario calculator.

N = 10,000 paths WACC 8.3% ann. T0 = Jan 2027 Base go-live = month 14 Horizon = 120 mo

Landlord view

Location

New Build: 0 Circle Avenue Shell-Only. Lynnway Park builds the shell and site works; the operator funds the fit-out. Switching location also updates MC Simulation. Recalculate after switching.

Each risk on its own

A few illustrative delay scenarios per risk and their effect on median NPV, with every other assumption at the base case.

Permitting and the physical cabling/connection work sit on the same critical path, so they are modelled as one combined average delay, plus a worse case in which the utility process runs slower than expected.

Average and worse-case delay for each construction path: a conversion of an existing building (structural and floor-loading review required before it can host a data hall) versus a new, ground-up build.

Supply delays on server and networking hardware.

Tenant move-in earlier or later than planned; an early move-in is the only scenario on this page that improves the return.

Scenario Setter

Base assumptions (WACC, capacity, landlord rent, tariff, land, exit) come from MC Simulation; edit them there. Set the four delay scenarios below, then press Calculate.

Construction timeline

Construction delay 8.0 wk

Power & grid connection

Grid connection delay 4.0 wk

Hardware delivery

Delivery delay 10.0 wk

Tenant move-in

Move-in delay 9.0 wk

Exit horizon

Floating exit: hold for a fixed period after actual go-live instead of selling on a fixed calendar date. Off (default), delay is priced as a fund with a hard exit deadline sees it: a later go-live cuts the operating window before that date. On, delay costs only carrying cost and the time value of cash flows landing later, because the hold and exit move out with go-live.

Energy Modelling Calculating initial scenario…

On schedule vs. with delay risk

The scenario above, run once on schedule and once with the selected risks, to isolate the effect of delay. Bars show the median across the simulated paths; the red line under each pair is the typical (P5–P95) range. Delay does not change total construction spend (see Total CapEx below); it adds carrying cost on committed capital and, for a fixed exit horizon, shortens the revenue window.

Calculating…

Detail: with delay risk applied

NPV probability wave

Density of NPV outcomes at 8.3% WACC, $M, decaying into the median point estimate.

What this shows

IRR probability wave

Density of annualised IRR outcomes, decaying into the median point estimate.

What this shows