Risk-Priced Capital · Monte Carlo DCF

Lynnway Park: 626 Lynnway (4 MW) and 0 Circle Avenue (6 MW), Lynn MA

10,000 simulated paths of each site's 120-month landlord cash flow, each with its own draw for landlord rent, power prices, lease-up speed and construction costs, so the page shows the range of outcomes and how likely each is rather than one point estimate. If the sale at the end of the 10-year hold is switched on, its value is the last year of income divided by the exit cap rate below.

N = 10,000 paths seed 42 WACC 8.3% ann. T0 = Jan 2027 Rent is an input; yield on cost is a result Exit = month 120

Landlord view

Location

Both sites are simulated on every run; this toggle picks which one the cash-flow fan, CapEx breakdown and year table show. Conversion is the 626 Lynnway data-hall landlord case, phased 1, 2 and 4 MW; New Build is the 0 Circle Avenue Shell-Only case.

Input parameters

The main drivers: change them and recompute in the browser. Everything else stays at the published base-case distributions.

New Build tenant

Air-cooled, diversified tenant mix: 14-month build, lease-up to 85% over 30 months. Applies to New Build only.

WACC (annual) 8.3% New Build IT capacity 6.0 MW Conversion (626 Lynnway) IT capacity 4.0 MW New Build shell CapEx / MW $1.94M Landlord rent, Conversion data hall (T0) $11.43/kW/mo Landlord rent, New Build (Shell-Only, T0) $28.37/kW/mo Power tariff (T0) $45.38/MWh Tariff inflation (p.a.) 4.0% Exit cap rate 7.75%

Land already owned: removes land from CapEx on all 10,000 simulated paths, since it is not a forward cash outflow. On by default. Include exit/sale value. Off by default: the asset is held with no sale. On adds a sale at month 120 to every path, valued at trailing-12-month NOI ÷ the exit cap rate above, less a 2% sale cost (the same toggle as Advanced Analysis).

Energy Modelling Showing: base case · N=10,000 · seed 42

New Build vs. Conversion: side by side

Both sites on every run, from the same assumptions above (WACC, tariff and so on), with Lynnway Park as landlord: New Build is 0 Circle Avenue Shell-Only, Conversion is the 626 Lynnway data hall. Rent is the input on each; yield on cost (first 12 stabilised months of NOI ÷ CapEx) is a result. Bars show the median across 10,000 paths; the dashed line under each pair is the typical (P5–P95) range.

Cumulative discounted cash flow

Percentile band across 10,000 paths, $M at 8.3% WACC. The band narrows into a point estimate at exit. Hover to inspect a month.

P25–P75

P5–P95

Median (coloured by risk zone)

Point estimate at exit

NPV probability wave

Density of NPV outcomes at 8.3% WACC, $M, decaying into the median point estimate. Solid: Conversion; dotted: New Build. Median, P5 and P95 figures are in the compare cards above.

What this shows

IRR probability wave

Density of annualised IRR outcomes, decaying into the median point estimate. Solid: Conversion; dotted: New Build. Median, P5 and P95 figures are in the compare cards above.

What this shows

CapEx composition

Mean draw across all paths, $M, for the location selected above. New Build: shell = IT capacity × shell CapEx/MW × a scale-up factor (mean 1.15×, range 1.00–1.40×), plus grid, 0 Circle flood mitigation, fibre and security; about $22.4M at 6MW on the point estimates. Conversion: the same fit-out lines as the 626 Lynnway page; about $2.72M at 4MW.

Percentile bands by year

Cumulative discounted cash flow, $M, sampled at each anniversary of T0.

Year	Month	P5	P25	Median	P75	P95