Every driver is editable, including the secondary CapEx and opex line items, with WACC discounting and an optional exit value. The result is a single point estimate; the Monte Carlo Simulation gives the range across 10,000 simulated paths.
Single point-estimate path, $M. The DCF line discounts at WACC; the simple linear line shows the same cash flows undiscounted. With exit value switched on, both lines take the sale (trailing-12-month NOI ÷ exit cap rate) as a lump sum in the final month. Basic Analysis leaves the sale out.
Why the linear line can sit above zero while the DCF line is flat or negative:
both lines use the same cash flows, so the gap is discounting alone. Most of the value arrives late, after a slow lease-up, and discounting at WACC shrinks it, so a back-loaded project can look positive in nominal terms while barely clearing its return hurdle.
A wide gap means the case depends on that late payoff arriving on schedule.
Why the DCF line can look flatter: both lines share one y-axis, and a large undiscounted exit jump on the linear line stretches it, compressing the DCF line near the bottom. The inputs are the same.
NOI and cash flow at each anniversary of T0, $M.
| Year | Month | NOI | Cash flow | Cumulative | Cumulative disc. |
|---|