A mean-reverting simulation of the delivered retail power tariff, calibrated on National Grid MA's G-3 rate class: what power would cost without a broker deal. The model itself runs on the brokered base case of $45.38/MWh (4.538¢/kWh), escalated 4% a year, with the same mean-reverting volatility applied around it (Assumptions §10). Under the true NNN leases the operator pays for its own power, so the tariff moves the landlord's result only through the ~2% of cost it retains.
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck percentile band (unshaped), ¢/kWh. The dashed line is the same median path with the seasonal index applied month by month.
Multiplicative, normalised to 1.0 annual mean, derived from history excluding the Nov 2022–Apr 2023 gas-crisis months.
Standard GBM (no mean reversion), used only as a ceiling stress test, not the DCF central case.